Climate Briefing 2

John Houghton

Action Required

[Actions that could] be taken now to slow climate change … at little or no net cost and that are good for other reasons [ie 'no regrets' policies, include:]

• a reduction of deforestation,
• a substantial increase in afforestation,
• [measures to reduce] methane emissions,
• an aggressive increase in energy [efficiency, and]
• increased implementation of renewable [energy sources. …]

[At] the current state of knowledge the range 400-500 ppm in carbon dioxide concentration is where further detailed consideration of costs and impacts should be concentrated. …
[Stabilisation] of carbon dioxide concentration by 2100 … will require very rapid growth in … non-fossil fuel energy sources [along with technology transfer to developing countries to enable them to industrialize in a sustainable manner.]
(p 264)

World energy demand and supply

The two billion poorest people in the world (less than $US 1000 annual income per capita) each use an average of 0.2 toe [tonnes of oil equivalent] annually …
[The] billion richest in the world (more than $22,000 annual income per capita) use … 5 toe per capita annually [— almost twenty-five times as much.]
The average annual energy use per capita [globally] is about 1.7 toe [or] 2.2 kilowatts (KW).
The highest rates of energy consumption are in North America where the average citizen consumes an average of about 11 kW. …
(p 269)

The support and financing of renewable energy

Renewable energy of [a scale sufficient to stabilise carbon dioxide levels] will only be realised if it is [cost] competitive …
[Currently fossil fuels are subsidised at an average cost of US $40 per tonne of carbon.]
(p 306)

A start with incentives would be [to redirect such subsidies to renewable alternatives. …]

Government R & D, averaged worldwide, currently runs at about ten billion US dollars per year or about 1% of worldwide capital investment in the energy industry [ie one trillion dollars.]
On average, in developed countries it has fallen by about a factor of two since the mid 1980s.
[However, in the UK,] government sponsored energy R & D fell by about a factor of ten from the mid 1980s to 1998 when, in proportion to GDP, it was only one-fifth of that in the USA and one-seventeenth of that in Japan. …
[Sustained] growth of 30% or more per year … in wind and solar energy [if required if carbon dioxide levels are to be stabilised at around 450 ppm by 2020.]
(p 307)

Policy instruments

• … energy pricing strategies (carbon or energy taxes and reduced … subsidies)
• reducing or removing other [agricultural and transport subsidies] that ten to increase … emissions;
• tradeable emissions permits;
• voluntary programmes and negotiated agreements with industry;
• utility demand-side management …
• [appliance and fuel economy] energy efficiency standards …
• research and development [into] new technologies …
• market pull and demonstration [projects …]
• renewable energy incentives during market build-up;
• [education and training] directed [at] necessary behavioural changes …
• accelerated depreciation or reduced costs for consumers …
• technological transfer to [and capacity building in] developing countries;
• ['no regrets'] options that also support other economic and environmental goals.

(Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, 2004, p 309)

The Age of Consequences

CSIS-CNAS: Security Implications of Climate Change

Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965):
The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences.

Implications of Global Climate Change

• Soft power and north-south tensions will increase
• Migration and immigration will rise, producing a strong backlash
• Public health problems will grow
• Resource conflicts and vulnerabilities will intensify
• Nuclear activity will increase, with attendant risks
• Challenges to global governance will multiply
• Domestic political repercussions and state failure will occur
• The balance of power will shift in unpredictable ways
• China’s role will be critical
• The United States must come to terms with climate change

(p 106-8)

Environmental and National Security Implications of Three Climate Scenarios

Assumptions

Expected (2010-40)

• Average 1.3°C warming
• 0.23 meters of sea level rise
• Approximately 30 year time frame

Severe (2010-40)

• Average 2.6°C warming
• 0.52 meters of sea level rise
• Approximately 30 year time frame

Catastrophic (2040-2100)

• Average 5.6°C warming
• 2.0 meters of sea level rise
• Approximately 100 year time frame

Environmental Stresses

Expected (2010-40)

• Water scarcity affects up to 1.7 billion people
• Changed distribution of some infectious disease vectors and allergenic pollen species
• Up to 3 million additional people at risk of flooding
• Up to 30 million more people at risk of hunger due to crop failure

Severe (2010-40)

• Water scarcity affects up to 2 billion people
• Increased burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases
• Up to 15 million additional people at risk of flooding
• Changes in marine and ecosystems due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation

Catastrophic (2040-2100)

• Water scarcity affects 3.2 billion people
• Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts
• Approximately 30% loss of coastal wetlands
• Up to 120 million more people at risk of hunger due to crop failure
• Possible collapse of the meridional overturning circulation

Security Implications

Expected (2010-40)

• Conflict over resources due to and driving human migration
• Immigrants — or even simply visitors — from a country in which there has been a significant disease outbreak may not be welcomed and could be subject to quarantine and lead to loss of national income from restricted tourism
• Dissatisfaction with state governments could radicalize internal politics and create new safe havens [for violent extremists] in weak and failing states
• A strengthened geopolitical hand for natural gas exporting countries and, potentially, biofuel exporting countries …
  [A] weakened hand, both strategically and economically, for importers of all fuel types
• Social services will become increased burden on central government where available
• The regional positions of Turkey and others will likely be strengthened as a result of the water crisis

Severe (2010-40)

• Wealthiest members of society pull away from the rest of the population, undermining morale and viability of democratic governance
• Global fish stocks may crash, enmeshing some nations in a struggle over dwindling supplies
• Governments, lacking necessary resources, may privatize water supply …
  [Past] experience with this in poor societies suggests likelihood of violent protest and political upheaval
• Globalization may end and rapid economic decline may begin, owing to the collapse of financial and production systems that depend on integrated worldwide systems
• Corporations may become increasingly powerful relative to governments as the rich look to private services, engendering a new form of globalization in which transnational business becomes more powerful than states
• Alliance systems and multilateral institutions may collapse — among them, the UN, as the Security Council fractures beyond compromise or repair

Catastrophic (2040-2100)

• Migration toward US borders by millions of hungry and thirsty southern neighbors is likely to dominate US security and humanitarian concerns
• A shrinking Russian population might have substantial difficulty preventing China from asserting control over much of Siberia and the Russian Far East …
  [A high] probability of conflict between two destabilized nuclear powers …
• Rage at government’s inability to deal with the abrupt and unpredictable crises
• Religious fervor, perhaps even a dramatic rise in millennial end-of-days cults
• Hostility and violence toward migrants and minority groups
• Altruism and generosity would likely be blunted
• US military’s worldwide reach could be reduced substantially by logistics and the demand of missions near our shores
• Electricity generation and distribution highly vulnerable to attack by [violent extremists] and rogue states

(Adapted from Table 3, p 104)

George W Bush

Blue Army: Persons of Interest

(Acts of War, ABC Afghanistan — Inside Australia's War, Episode 1, 2015)

George W Bush (1946):
The history of military conflict in Afghanistan has been one of initial success followed by long years of floundering and ultimate failure.
We're not going to repeat that mistake.

Stan Grant (1963):
The US has spent a colossal $2.26 trillion in Afghanistan, $88bn wen to training an equipping the Afghan forces.
(ABC The World This Week, 20 August 2021)

George W Bush (1946):
… I'm going to be judicious as to how to use the military.
It needs to be in our vital interest, the mission needs to be clear, and the exit strategy obvious.
(2000)

Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make.
Either:

• you are with us; or
• you are with the terrorists.

(20 September 2001)

Matthew [12:30]:
He that is not with me is against me …
(King James Bible, 1611)

George W Bush (1946):
[Iran, Iraq and North Korea] constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.
(State of the Union Address, 29 January 2002)

Vladimir Lenin | Ulyanov (1870 – 1924):
Whoever is not with me, is against me.

John Kennedy (1917 – 63):
I will never compromise the principles on which this country is built, but we're not going to plunge into an irresponsible action just because a fanatical fringe in this country puts so-called national pride above national reason.
(Chris Matthews, Jack Kennedy: Elusive Hero, Simon & Schuster, 2011, Reader's Digest, 2013, p 215)

Proverbs:
Wisdom is the principal thing; therefore get wisdom: and with all thy getting, get understanding.
(4: 7)

Jonathan Haidt (1963):
[Ignorant] people see everything in black and white.
They rely heavily on the myth of pure evil and … are strongly influenced by their own self-interest.
The wise are able to:

• see things from others' points of view;
• appreciate shades of grey; and
• [choose] a course of action that works out best for everyone in the long run.

(The Happiness Hypothesis, 2006)

Peter Singer (1946):
[It] is a mistake to divide the world neatly into good and evil, black and white without shades of grey, [because it] eliminates the need to learn more about those with whom one is dealing.
For an unreflective person to have a sense of "moral clarity" that disregards the shadings in human motivation and conduct can be a vice, not a virtue.
(The President of Good and Evil, p 250)

Dennis Howitt:
[The] thinking of terrorists exhibits the sort of cognitive distortions that are often found in people who commit other sorts of violence.
These … include the tendency to over-generalize the enemy's perceived failings to encompass the entirety of the population.
Perceptions are also dichotomised so that they are either good or they are bad with no shades of grey in between.
(Introduction to Forensic and Criminal Psychology, 4th Edition, Pearson, 2011 / 2012, p 229)

George Washington (1732 – 99):
The nation which indulges towards another an habitual hatred or an habitual fondness is in some degree a slave.
It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest.

Theodore Roosevelt (1858 – 1919):
He who is not with us absolutely and without reserve of any kind is against us, and should be treated as an alien enemy …
We have room in this country for but one flag.
We have room for but one language.

William Clifford (1845 – 79) [Philosopher and Mathematician]:
Men speak the truth to one another when each reveres the truth in his own mind and in the other's mind …
[But] how shall my friend revere the truth in my mind when I myself am careless about it …
[When] I believe things [simply because] they are comforting and pleasant? …
The credulous man is father to the liar and the cheat. …

Charles Wesley (1707 – 88):
A charge to keep I have,
A God to glorify,
A never dying soul to save,
And fit it for the sky.

To serve the present age,
My calling to fulfill,
O may it all my powers engage
To do my Master's will!
(George W Bush, A Charge to Keep, 1999)

George W Bush (1946):
The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world; it's God's gift to humanity. …
(2001)

I looked [Vladimir Putin] in the eye [and] I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy.
We had a very good dialogue:
I was able to get a sense of his soul.
(Taking Control, Putin, Russia and the West, 2011)

Bush's Ethical Failure

This book [attempts] to cover all the possibilities.
When Bush speaks about his ethics, he is either sincere or he is insincere.
If he is insincere, he stands condemned for that alone.
I have started with the opposite, more generous assumption: that Bush is sincere, and we should take his ethic seriously, assessing it on its own terms, and asking how well he has done by his own standards. …
(p 267)

Whether [or not] he really believes in the … rhetoric that he uses … it is clear that Bush has no real interest in the policy details needed to achieve the aspirations he has voiced.
He has failed to follow through on most of the commitments he has made to work for a better, more just society.
He has said that deep, persistent poverty is unworthy of America's promise, but the number of Americans living in poverty increased in both 2001 and 2002.
(p 265)

Instead of combating that increase, Bush has pressed for tax cuts that hobble the government's capacity to do anything about it.
Rather than ensure that the nation he leads is a good global citizen, Bush has spurned institutions for global co-operation and set back the task of making the rule of law, rather than force, the determining factor in world affairs.
He has launched an unnecessary war, costly in [blood and treasure,] with a final outcome that is still uncertain.
His protection of the steel industry and his signature on a law authorising the largest-ever subsidies to American farmers shows his strong rhetoric about free trade to be a brutal hypocrisy that is driving millions of impoverished farmers in other countries deeper into poverty.
A comparison between the size of these subsidies and Bush's proposed increase in foreign aid makes his compassion look stingy.
(p 266)

He speaks of America's calling to promote democracy around the world, but his administration reacted positively to the first reports of an apparently successful coup against the left-leaning, but democratically elected, Venezuelan government of Hugo Chavez. …
[If] a candidate campaigns by stressing his moral character and his honesty, and then fails to make even a serious attempt to implement his campaign promises, he has damaged the moral fabric of democracy.
(p 257)

Handicapped by a naive idea of ethics as conformity to a small number of fixed rules, he has been unable to handle adequately the difficult choices that any chief executive of a major nation must face.
(p 266)

(The President of Good and Evil, 2004)

Saving Lives

[In] 2003 Bush … became convinced of the need for a major US initiative to tackle HIV/AIDS at a global level …
The bill he signed stipulated only that

• one-third of the funds going to prevention should be set aside for programs that exclusively promote sexual abstinence until marriage;

  Scientific American:
  [The US spent $1.4 billion] over a 10-year period from 2004 through 2013 promoting abstinence … in sub-Saharan Africa.
  [According] to the most comprehensive independent study [to date] the money was more or less wasted. …
  Instead … one of the most important factors associated with lower levels of risky behavior was the number of years women remained in school. …
  [In addition, previous studies] showed that … at least a million lives [were saved] by making anti-HIV medications more widely available …
  (August 2016, p 12)

• the remainder was available for use in programs promoting condom use. …

(pp 126-7)

[Started] under President George W Bush in 2005 the President's Malaria Initiative, or PMI, is … one of the best run and most effective of the US's worldwide health efforts. …
[The WHO has estimated that] 4.3 million fewer malaria deaths occurred between 2001 and 2013 [than had been expected based on] malaria patterns in 2000 …
The PMI accounted for a substantial part of [this ~47% reduction in mortality.]
The Program is based on four interventions:

• insecticide-treated mosquito nets,
• indoor spraying,
• testing and treatment with artemisinin-based drugs, and
• preventive treatment of pregnant women.

The next phase of the strategy, under the Obama administration, [seeks] to reduce malaria deaths by a [further 30% by 2020] in 19 target countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in the Greater Mekong region of Asia. …
Efforts will even aim to eliminate the disease in some countries. …

The secret to the initiative's success [is its logistical rigour.]
PMI's approach is holistic: [taking] responsibility for every link in the chain, from procurement to quality control.
[It] is a model [of] sustained focus on a limited number of targeted interventions in countries with a high burden of disease. …

[Nevertheless,] the overall global budget for malaria control is still projected to lag by more than $2 billion a year compared with what the mission requires …

(Global Role Model: A successful malaria program enters its second phase, Scientific American, May 2015, pp 16-7)

Competition and Morality

Bertrand Russell: Power

Edward Gibbon (1737 – 94):
The various modes of worship, which prevailed in the Roman world, were all considered

• by the people, as equally true;
• by the philosopher, as equally false; and
• by the magistrate, as equally useful.

Walter Bagehot (1826 – 77):
The best reason why Monarchy is a strong government is, that it is an intelligible government.
The mass of mankind understand it …
It is often said that men are ruled by their imaginations …
[But] it would be truer to say that they are governed by the weakness of their imaginations.
(The English Constitution, 1867)

Competition

To the unphilosophical propagandist, there is his own propaganda, which is that of truth, and the opposite propaganda, which is that of falsehood.
If he believes in permitting both, it is only because he fears that his might be the one to suffer prohibition. …

[However, for the philosopher,] any useful purpose which is to be served by propaganda must be not that of causing an almost certainly erroneous opinion to be dogmatically believed, but, on the contrary, that of promoting judgement, rational doubt, and the power of weighing opposing considerations …
[This purpose can only be served] if there is competition among propagandas. …

[The philosopher] will advocate that, as far as possible, everybody should hear all sides of every question.
Instead of different newspapers, each devoted to the interests of one party and encouraging the dogmatism of its readers, he will advocate a single newspaper, in which all parties are represented.
(p 154)

Moral Codes

Morality … has had two divergent aspects.

• [Positive morality] has been a social institution analogous to law …
• [Personal morality] has been a matter for the individual conscience.

(p 156)

[No] nation of antiquity recognised any legal or moral limits to what might be done with defeated populations.
It was customary to exterminate some and sell the rest into slavery. …
The vanquished, having no power, had no claim to mercy.
This view was not abandoned, even in theory, until the coming of Christianity.

Duty to enemies [remains] a difficult conception.
Clemency was recognised as a virtue in antiquity, but only when it was successful, that is to say, when it turned enemies into friends; otherwise, it was condemned as a weakness.
When fear had been aroused, no one expected magnanimity: the Romans showed none towards Hannibal or the followers of Spartacus.

In our day, almost equal ferocity has been shown towards the victims of the white terrors in Finland, Hungary, Germany, and Spain, and hardly any protests have been aroused except among political opponents. …
The terror in Russia, likewise, has been condoned by most of the Left.

Now, as in the days of the Old Testament, no duty to enemies is acknowledged in practice when they are sufficiently formidable to arouse fear.
Positive morality [is] only operative within the social group concerned, and is therefore … in effect, a department of government.
Nothing short of a world government will cause people of pugnacious disposition to admit, except as a counsel of perfection, that moral obligations are not confined to a section of the human race.
(p 164)

Broadly speaking [positive morality …]

• is on the side of the powers that be …
• does not allow a place for revolution, …
• does nothing to mitigate the fierceness of strife, and …
• can find no place for the prophet who proclaims some new moral insight. …

The world owes something to the Gospels [—] though not [as] much as it would if they had had more influence.
It owes something to those who denounced slavery and the subjection of women.
We may hope that in time it will owe something to those who denounce war and economic injustice.
In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, it owed much to the apostles of tolerance [and,] perhaps it will again in some happier age than ours.

Revolutions against the mediaeval Church, the Renaissance monarchies, and the present power of plutocracy, are necessary for the avoidance of stagnation.
Admitting, as we must, that mankind needs revolution and individual morality, the problem is to find a place for these things without plunging the world into anarchy.
(p 165)