Real Inequality
Tom Switzer (1971) [Director, Centre for Independent Studies]:
[Australia] is not like the US where we have seen real income inequality …
[According to the Productivity Commission:]Sustained growth has delivered significantly increased living standards for the average Australian in every income group …(Tim Soutphommasane on the 'political narcissism of minor differences', ABC Between The Lines, 9 May 2019)
[Economic] mobility is high [and] movements in inequality indexes are slight rather than serious.
Robert Carling:
[Redistributive tax policies] have strong disincentive effects …
Economic inequality is not intrinsically bad, and equality does not equate to fairness.
(Whatever happened to incentive?, Centre for Independent Studies, 28 July 2017)
Daniel Wild & Andrew Bushnell:
The best available evidence demonstrates that income inequality is low and declining in Australia.
(Understanding Inequality in Australia, Institute of Public Affairs, November 2017)
Henry Ergas:
Most measures suggest income inequality [in Australia] has now stabilised or diminished …
(Shorten’s fix for imaginary inequality issue is to tax the rich, The Australian, 29 July 2017)
peaceandlonglife:
Average equivalised household disposable income in Australia has grown by 2.1% per year (from $30,942 to $53,711) for the last 27 years (1989-16).
This includes a 4 year period of falling incomes (2012-15) following the mining boom.
peaceandlonglife:
Over for the last 27 years, in absolute terms, the incomes of the top 10% have been growing, on average, 7 times faster than those of the bottom 10%.
In percentage terms, the income of the top 10% (2.4%) has been growing 29% faster than the bottom 90% (1.9%).
peaceandlonglife:
In Australia in 1989, the income ratio of the top 10% ($68,495) to the bottom 10% ($9,562) was 7.2 to 1.
By 2016 the income ratio of the top 10% ($131,560) to the bottom 10% ($16,495) had increased to 8.0 to 1.
Ratio of average income of the richest 20% to the poorest 20%.
(Richard Wilkinson & Kate Pickett, The Spirit Level, 2009)
Productivity Commission
[In the 2 years to 2014,] the income share held by the top 1% of households rose [by 12.5%:] from 4.8% [to] 5.4% …
Australians aged 25-34 have had declining incomes since 2009-10. …
[In 2015-16, children] under the age of 15 [had] the highest levels of both:
- income poverty (11.5%, or about 530 000 children), and
- consumption poverty (12.9%, or a little under 600 000) …
[Relative] income poverty [has not declined] despite 27 years of uninterrupted growth …
About half of Australians experienced income poverty at some point between 2001 and 2016. …
About [700,000 Australians] have been in income poverty continuously for at least the last 4 years. …
Among 28 OECD countries [Australia ranks:]
- 3rd in median household wealth, [but]
- [8th in equality of] wealth distribution …
The top half of the wealth distribution experienced particularly strong growth …
[The] wealth of the top decile increased by about $620,000 to reach $2.2 million, which is … about 7 times as much as the median person.
[By contrast, the] average wealth of the bottom decile actually fell … from about $10,000 to $8,000. …
Wealth inequality [in Australia] increased over the [12 years to 2015‑16] by 7%. …
The Gini coefficient for wealth (at about 0.6) is close to double the Gini coefficient for income (at about 0.3) …
[A] person at the 90th percentile of the wealth distribution has almost 40 times as much wealth as [a] person at the 10th percentile; for income, they have 4 times as much. …
[There] is less wealth mobility than income mobility, and more ‘stickiness’ at the top and bottom of the wealth distribution. …
If a father’s lifetime earnings are 10% above average for his generation, we would expect his son’s lifetime earnings to be 2–4% above average for his generation.
[Intergenerational earnings elasticity: 0.22 to 0.41]
peaceandlonglife:(Rising inequality? A stocktake of the evidence, August 2018)
An intergenerational earnings elasticity of 0.3 with a paternal income ratio of 8:1, confers an 87% income advantage to the sons of the richest 10% over the sons of the poorest 10%.
(M Corak, Income inequality, equality of opportunity, and intergenerational mobility,
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27:3, pp 79–102, 2013)
People Like Me
John Howard (1939):
I actually do support having a publicly funded broadcaster.
Tom Switzer (1971):
But should tax payers be funding left-wing comedy, for example?
John Howard (1939):
I think the ABC needs greater balance but I don't think the solution is to abolish or privatize the ABC.
That may be an unpopular statement to make to some people in this audience. …
Who is the best remembered individual leader of the South-East Asian region in the last 50 years?
It would be Lee Kwan Yew.
Singapore is an extraordinary example of a successful nation-state.
Not as democratic as a Australia: democracy's a little more guided in Singapore than it is here. …
Tom Switzer (1971):
[You're] quite right, he was clearly the most consequential figure in Asia in the post-war period …
[Yet,] on the night that he died … neither Late Line nor the 7.30 Report did anything on him.
That's a fact. …
John Howard (1939):
A couple of weeks ago, we had some extremely good economic figures — the quarterly accounts …
Now, five or ten years ago that would have led the news bulletin in NSW ABC.
Instead … we had:The proper role of the ABC [is to] give real prominence to national political stories.
- The first story was about a data breach.
- The second story was about those containers falling off that ship off Newcastle. …
- The third item was the economic figures. …
(John Howard on threats to free speech and robust debate, Centre for Independent Studies, 10 July 2018)
David Marr (1947):
Over the last twenty years, the impact on public debate of cuts and the fear of further cuts at the ABC is incalculable.(His Master's Voice, Quarterly Essay, Issue 26, 2007, p 52)
- The politicians mask their revenge behind a barrage of abuse about bias;
- the Howard government stacks the board with angry ideologues; and
- [its] commercial news rivals print near-lunatic attacks.
Stephan Lewandowsky & Ullrich Ecker [Cognitive Science Laboratories, University of Western Australia]:
Professor Stephen Kull has been keeping track of key beliefs among the American public for many years …
Consumers of Murdoch-owned Fox News were most likely to be misinformed on a range of issues, whereas those who primarily listened to National Public Radio (roughly comparable to our ABC) were most likely to be attuned to reality. …
Those who entered the Fox “matrix” every day were least likely to be connected to reality [whereas] daily listeners [of Public Radio] were typically the best-informed people across a number of studies spanning nearly a decade. …
(Warning: your journalism may contain deception, inaccuracies and a hidden agenda, Media and Democracy, The Conversation, 1 September 2011)
Tom Switzer (1971)
[Privatization] would say to the ABC management:
You can put on as much Left wing ideological, tainted, journalism as you like, be frank about it, but just not at tax-payers expense. …[And,] you'd be saving taxpayers up to more than million dollars every year …
Some programs, clearly, would not sell.
And others would continue to aggravate people like me.
But the point is, at least taxpayers would not be forced to pay for it. …
[Then] of course you've got this digital evolution … that's costing jobs … it's threatening the very viability of newspapers …
And let's be frank, when Rupert Murdoch goes, its highly unlikely that good quality flagship papers like The Australian will prevail.
In that environment, why should a tax-payer funded, free-to-the-consumer competitor, be allowed to expand on their turf?
There's something fundamentally unfair about that. …
My point is, that with the bias there and the changing media landscape, I don't think the ABC can be a public service broadcaster …
All things considered, the ABC News is more professional and it covers the big issues of the day in more detail than the commercial networks.
But my point is: [there's] a plethora of [digital] news and media [out there …]
[These] days, people … can read the New York Times or the Guardian newspaper online — we're well informed.
Do we need a publicly funded broadcaster to fill us in on those issues? …
[If, as the polls indicate, public broadcasting has 89% support in the community, why] would the marketplace let [such a] valuable franchise die?
If it were a commercially viable entity … how would privatising lead to diminishing the quality of it's product? …
[Most ABC journalists come from a] cultural left liberal background — the university classes. …
You see the same thing at the BBC in Britain.
[They all] naturally think alike.
(Should the ABC be privatised?, ABC Counterpoint, 10 June 2013)
We won't use this program to highlight what you say is ABC bias and groupthink.
But … does Australia still need a public broadcaster in 2019?
Gerard Henderson (1945):( One month after the unlosable election; and why we no longer need NATO, ABC Between the Lines, 13 June 2019)
[The] answer is yes.
I've never supported the privatization of the ABC. …
[And it's] never going to happen at any rate, because there's a lot of support for the ABC among rural Liberals and Nationals …
[About] 90% of the criticism of the ABC turns on 10% of it's programs — all in news and current affairs. …
[So long as it] remains a [virtually] conservative-free zone … it's not surprising [that, at times,] the Coalition politicians get frustrated …
Would you like to know more?
Contents
Real Inequality
People Like Me
Climate Hysteria
Tyranny of the Majority
Nuclear Deterrence Works
In Trump We Trust
Tom Switzer (1971)
Presenter, ABC Between The Lines.
Executive Director, Centre of Independent Studies.
Senior Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney (2009-17).
Editor, The Spectator Australia (2009-14).
Senior Advisor to former federal Liberal Party leader Brendan Nelson (2008).
Opinion Editor, The Australian (2001-8).
Editorial Writer, The Australian Financial Review (1998-2001).
Assistant Editor, American Enterprise Institute (1995-8).
- The intellectual decline of American conservatism, ABC Between the Lines, 28 September 2017.
Bret Stephens (1973): Columnist, The New York Times. - Political climate changing?, ABC Between the Lines, 23 February 2017.
Bob Inglis (1959): Former Republican Congressman for South Carolina's 4th district. - New climate deal faces hurdles, ABC Between the Lines, 21 May 2015
Tom Switzer (1971):
{[Nigel,] I think your views are always worth hearing (at least on my show) …}
Listeners should know that you and I have been talking about [climate] issues for the best part of a decade …
Tim Flannery did not predict permanent drought
Tom Switzer (1971):
Here is Tim Flannery predicting permanent drought in NSW on ABC's Lateline 10 years ago …
Tim Flannery (1956):
Since 1998 particularly we've seen just drought, drought, drought — particularly [in] regions like Sydney …
If you look at the Warragamba catchment figures since 98 the water has been in virtual freefall and they've got about 2 years of supply left …
So when the models start confirming what you're observing on the ground then there's some fairly strong basis for believing that we're understanding what's causing these … rainfall declines and [that] they do seem to be of a permanent nature.
I don't think it's just a cycle …
[The] worst case or Sydney is that the climate that's existed for the last 7 years continues for another 2 years.
peaceandlonglife:
Drought and reduced average rainfall are not the same thing.
Multi-decadal declines in average rainfall have been observed across southern Australia.
These trends may well be permanent.
Reductions in average rainfall are likely to increase the frequency and severity of droughts.
CSIRO / BoM:
[Since] 1970 there has been a 17% decline in average winter rainfall in the southwest of Australia. …
[Similarly, south eastern Australia] has experienced a 15% decline in late autumn and early winter rainfall since the mid-1990s, with a 25% reduction in average rainfall across April and May. …
(p 6)
Further decreases in average rainfall are expected over southern Australia [in future.]
[Consequently, droughts] are expected to become more frequent and severe in southern Australia. …
(State of the Climate 2014, p 15)
Tim Flannery (1956):
Between 1990 and 1996 the total flow into all eleven of Sydney’s dams had averaged 71,635 megalitres, but by 2003 this had dropped to just 39,881 megalitres, a decline of 45%.
(The Weather Makers, Text, 2005, p 131)
Tim Flannery did not predict that Sydney would never again experience heavy rainfall
Tom Switzer (1971):
[When] Flannery appeared on the same show just recently … he was allowed to say that recent heavy rains in Sydney (that he said were not going to happen) were due to … global warming.
When we're in drought, we're told its the fault of global warming; when there are heavy storms and floods, that's also the fault of global warming!
peaceandlonglife:
Scientifically speaking, there is no inconsistency between reduced average rainfall and increased heavy rainfall events.
Global warming tends to increase average rainfall in already wet regions while reducing rainfall in already dry regions.
Warmer air carries more moisture, so while in some places it may rain less often, when it does rain, the rain is heavier.
IPCC:
Available research suggests a significant future increase in heavy rainfall events in many regions, including some in which the mean rainfall is projected to decrease.
(Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, 17 November 2007, p 49)
CSIRO / BoM:
For Australia as a whole, an increase in the number of dry days is expected, but it is also likely that rainfall will be heavier during wet periods.
(State of the Climate 2012, 13 March 2012, p 11)
Arctic sea ice and global glacial retreat is progressing at an accelerating rate
Tom Switzer (1971):
We're all aware of those debunked predictions such as the vanishing Himalayan glaciers, the disappearing North Polar ice cap …
CSIRO / BoM:
Arctic summer minimum sea-ice extent has declined by between 9.4 and 13.6% per decade since 1979, a rate that is likely unprecedented in at least the past 1,450 years.
(State of the Climate 2014, p 10)
IPCC:
[Under adaptation only scenarios:]- a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in September before mid-century is likely [and]
- global glacier volume … is projected to decrease … by 35 to 85% [by 2100]
(Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis — SPM, 27 September 2013, p 17)
For every climate scientist that rejects the consensus position there are 32 who accept it
Tom Switzer (1971):
There are many distinguished climate scientists such as- Richard Lindzen …
- Judith Curry …
- William Happer …
- Robert Mendelsohn …
- John Christy …
- Freeman Dyson (he's a famed physicist)
Robert Mendelsohn [Professor of Economics, Yale University]:
If Canada is a well-meaning member of the world community, Canadians might want to stop (global warming) because it's bad for the world.
It's important that we start trying to control greenhouse gases. …
Eventually it's going to get too warm [and the damages] will far exceed the benefits.
(The UP side of global warming, The StarPhoenix, 10 January 2009)
Stephen Schneider (1945 – 2010):
[Not only did] Spencer and Christy [mislead] the world [and the scientific community for 25 years] based upon their [biased University of Alabama] satellite reconstruction, [its evident from their blogs that they did it] on purpose …
[It] turned out they ['forgot' that] satellites fly in a proton soup [which] slows them down, lowers them, [and] changes the angle of the orbit [—] that's why they had a false cooling trend.
(Climate Change Scepticism: Its Sources and Strategies, AAAS Forum, ABC Science Show, 3 April 2010)
Raymond Pierrehumbert:
We now know, of course, that the satellite data set confirms that the climate is warming and indeed at very nearly the same rate as indicated by the surface temperature records.
Now, there’s nothing wrong with making mistakes when pursuing an innovative observational method, but Spencer and Christy sat by for most of a decade allowing — indeed encouraging — the use of their data set as an icon for global warming skeptics.
They committed serial errors in the data analysis, but insisted they were right and models and thermometers were wrong.
They did little or nothing to root out possible sources of errors, and left it to others to clean up the mess — as has now been done.
(How to cook a graph in three easy lessons, RealClimate, 21 May 2008)
- Should the ABC be privatised?, ABC Counterpoint, 10 June 2013.
Tom Switzer (1971):
I do think there are a lot of very good, decent, sound and intellectually honest journalists at the ABC …
[But there's] very little political and ideological diversity in many of these important producers' rooms at some of these current affairs shows — and it shows. …
Amanda Vanstone (1952):
[Restricting our discussion] to the current affairs programs … do you accept that there's a place for a national broadcaster to inform, enlighten, educate and offer diversity that the marketplace might not always seek? …
Tom Switzer (1971):
Newsradio … is a first rate 24 hour network …
Most of the journalists are just reading the news.
There's not much commentary.
There's not much chance to interpret the news, the way that you do on many of the current affairs programs.
So I think there's a case there …
… I'm told time and again [that the] prestige and credibility [of the ABC] has never been higher. …
Amanda Vanstone (1952):
I'm told [that] 89% of the public say … the ABC has a valuable role to play.
Tyranny of the Majority
Margaret Thatcher (1925 – 2013):
Too often, our children don't get … the education they deserve.
[That] opportunity is [being snatched away] from them by hard left education authorities and extremist teachers. …
Children who need to be taught to respect traditional moral values are being taught that they have an inalienable right to be gay. …
[Those] children are being cheated of a sound start in life …
(Conservative Party Conference, 9 October 1987)
Renee Graham [The Boston Globe]:
In 2004, no one's thinking much about gay marriage.
But then it becomes legal in Massachusetts, and that's enough to agitate a lot of people.
So suddenly the Republicans see this great opportunity.
(Quagmire: Bush's Second Term, The 2000's, Episode 3, 2018)
Tom Switzer (1971):
The side that picks the issues dominates the political debate, and the advantage lies with the Bully Pulpit if [Prime Minister Turnbull] will use it.
Why not:
- call on the states to ditch the politically correct Safe Schools [LGBTQI anti-bullying] program, or
- encourage Muslim leaders to assimilate to Western cultural norms?
The decent conservative mainstream of Australia.(PM must play the Right card, The Age, 11 July 2016, p 16)
Peter Van Onselen [Associate Professor in Politics and Government, Edith Cowan University; Contributing Editor, The Australian]:
[According to Miranda Devine, the Delcons (Delusional Conservatives) believe] the Liberals should lose the election.
[That] it's better for the Liberals to lose to Labor.
And there is a candle being held to the possibility of a Tony Abbott comeback. …
- Andrew Bolt decided he was one …
- Nick Cater from the Menzies Research Centre …
- [Tom Switzer's] definitely a Delcon.
Would you like to know more?
The Wrong Side History
Dwight Eisenhower (1890 – 1969):
Neither a wise man or a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him.
(6 October 1952)
Tom Switzer (1971):
I'm joined by [Nigel Lawson] the chairman of The Global Warming Policy Foundation …
[Nigel, do] you think there will come a time when historians will look back at the past decade or so and say that:
- this climate hysteria [had] reached its peak, …
- rational debate was at its most restricted, and
- politicians [were] at their most gullible?
Nigel Lawson (1932):
Yes, I think that this will be seen … as one of these outbreaks of collective madness which happen from time to time …
(New climate deal faces hurdles, ABC Between The Lines, 21 May 2015)
Tom Switzer (1971):
[Patricia Adams is the author of a recent report from] The Global Warming Policy Foundation in London. …
[Patricia, there are those that] insist that climate change represents such a grave threat to humanity … that the world has no choice but to … end fossil fuels entirely.
Is history on their side?
Patricia Adams:
No, it's not on their side.
Countries that have developed in the last 200 to 300 years have done so because of the use of fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels have empowered our economies:
- to raise standards of living, [and]
- to provide jobs for people.
And when I say cleanly, I mean to get rid of the emissions that come out of them that kill people …
CO2 is not a killer. …
I don't think CO2 is as dangerous as some of the other forms of energy.
It may be a problem, we have to keep a watch on it, but I don't think that it solves any problem by saying we've got to eliminate fossil fuels:
- [firstly, it's not] going to happen … certainly not in [the] foreseeable future [and]
- [secondly,] what about the alternatives that are being proposed?
They also cause environmental problems …
(Is China really showing 'leadership' on tackling climate change?, ABC Counterpoint, 31 October 2016)
Tom Switzer (1971):
[Andrew Stone, you] advocate the construction of new … coal power stations at Hazelwood and Liddell, and a potential third power station in Queensland.
Your argument is this will help restore the economy's low energy cost advantage.
Your critics would say that the recent dreadful bushfires [are] a reminder that climate change is a major threat to the economy.
Shouldn't we then more forward to a low carbon future?
Andrew Stone [Former senior policy advisor to Tony Abbott]:
First of all, I don't think [we should] extrapolate from one hot summer to make policy changes. …
What good does it do [if we do] not exploit the advantage we have in coal and cheap power to produce goods?
We'll send all our manufacturing offshore to Asia, much of it to China, where … emission controls are less … strict.
And then we'll have all those same emissions put out in China.
It achieves nothing in terms of global emissions. …
It is true that … it would be very difficult to find investors to build a coal-fired power station.
But that's because we have structured the … the energy market in such a way as to make it impossible for them.
And we've also deliberately built in a huge amount of sovereign risk …
I have absolutely made a priority in my book, [Restoring Hope: Practical Policies to Revitalise the Australian Economy …] to focus on what is practically achievable.
(Andrew Stone on why we need radical economic reform, ABC Between the Lines, 13 February 2020.
Freeman Dyson (1923 – 2020) [Academic Advisor, Global Warming Policy Foundation]:
[The problems caused by global warming] are being grossly exaggerated.
They take away money and attention from other problems that are much more urgent and important.
Poverty, infectious diseases, public education and public health.
Not to mention the preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans.
(Commencement Address, University of Michigan, Winter 2005)
[The] environmental movement [has been] hijacked by a bunch of climate fanatics, who have captured the attention of the public with scare stories. …
China and India have a simple choice to make.
Either they get rich [by burning prodigious quantities of coal and causing] a major increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, or they stay poor.
I hope they choose to get rich. …
The good news is that the main effect of carbon dioxide … on the planet is to make [it] greener, [by] feeding the growth of green plants of all kinds [and] increasing the fertility of farms and fields and forests.
(Misunderstandings, questionable beliefs mar Paris climate talks, Boston Globe, 3 December 2015)
Miranda Devine:
Environmentalism is the powerful new secular religion and politically correct scientists are its high priests …
It used to be men in purple robes who controlled us; soon it will be men in white lab coats.
The geeks shall inherit the earth.
(John Quiggan, Innovation: the test is yet to come, Inside Story, 10 December 2015)
