John Houghton
Action Required
[Actions that could] be taken now to slow climate change … at little or no net cost and that are good for other reasons [ie 'no regrets' policies, include:]
- a reduction of deforestation,
- a substantial increase in afforestation,
- [measures to reduce] methane emissions,
- an aggressive increase in energy [efficiency, and]
- increased implementation of renewable [energy sources. …]
[At] the current state of knowledge the range 400-500 ppm in carbon dioxide concentration is where further detailed consideration of costs and impacts should be concentrated. …
[Stabilisation] of carbon dioxide concentration by 2100 … will require very rapid growth in … non-fossil fuel energy sources [along with technology transfer to developing countries to enable them to industrialize in a sustainable manner.]
(p 264)
World energy demand and supply
The two billion poorest people in the world (less than $US 1000 annual income per capita) each use an average of 0.2 toe [tonnes of oil equivalent] annually …
[The] billion richest in the world (more than $22,000 annual income per capita) use … 5 toe per capita annually [— almost twenty-five times as much.]
The average annual energy use per capita [globally] is about 1.7 toe [or] 2.2 kilowatts (KW).
The highest rates of energy consumption are in North America where the average citizen consumes an average of about 11 kW. …
(p 269)
The support and financing of renewable energy
Renewable energy of [a scale sufficient to stabilise carbon dioxide levels] will only be realised if it is [cost] competitive …
[Currently fossil fuels are subsidised at an average cost of US $40 per tonne of carbon.]
(p 306)
A start with incentives would be [to redirect such subsidies to renewable alternatives. …]
Government R & D, averaged worldwide, currently runs at about ten billion US dollars per year or about 1% of worldwide capital investment in the energy industry [ie one trillion dollars.]
On average, in developed countries it has fallen by about a factor of two since the mid 1980s.
[However, in the UK,] government sponsored energy R & D fell by about a factor of ten from the mid 1980s to 1998 when, in proportion to GDP, it was only one-fifth of that in the USA and one-seventeenth of that in Japan. …
[Sustained] growth of 30% or more per year … in wind and solar energy [if required if carbon dioxide levels are to be stabilised at around 450 ppm by 2020.]
(p 307)
Policy instruments
- … energy pricing strategies (carbon or energy taxes and reduced … subsidies)
- reducing or removing other [agricultural and transport subsidies] that ten to increase … emissions;
- tradeable emissions permits;
- voluntary programmes and negotiated agreements with industry;
- utility demand-side management …
- [appliance and fuel economy] energy efficiency standards …
- research and development [into] new technologies …
- market pull and demonstration [projects …]
- renewable energy incentives during market build-up;
- [education and training] directed [at] necessary behavioural changes …
- accelerated depreciation or reduced costs for consumers …
- technological transfer to [and capacity building in] developing countries;
- ['no regrets'] options that also support other economic and environmental goals.
(
Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, 2004, p 309)